Bank of Canada Hold Key Rate
Best be getting used to this: Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of Canada, has again maintained interest rates at 1% and remains on track to not budge from that position any time soon as upside and downside risks remain balanced amid moderating growth.
This marks the 11th straight time the central bank has held rates at the 1% level, since a 25 basis point increase in September 2010. Since 2000, the bank has employed eight fixed dates a year when it makes decisions on the key rate. Economists expect the bank to keep interest rates at current levels until as late as next year.
The bank’s statement contained a few contradictions: It says the last quarter was stronger than expected, but growth in the future will moderate. Yet the economy will return to capacity quicker than expected.
Huh? Here are the main takeaways from the bank’s statement:
Canada muddles through, more or less
The overall outlook for the Canadian economy remains “little changed” from the bank’s October monetary policy report, with “more momentum than anticipated in the second half of 2011,” but comments Tuesday show a mixed picture with growth “expected to be more modest than previously envisaged.”
On the one hand, the bank has pushed up the schedule for the economy to return to full capacity by one quarter, to the third of 2013, and projects growth of 2.0% in 2012 and 2.8% in 2013 based off 2.4% growth last year. “While the economy appears to be operating with less slack than previously assumed, given the more modest growth profile, the economy is only anticipated to return to full capacity by the third quarter of 2013, one quarter earlier than was expected in October,” he said.
On the other hand, Mr. Carney expects the pace of growth to be more modest than previously thought, largely due to outside factors. “Prolonged uncertainty about the global economic and financial environment is likely to dampen the rate of growth of business investment … Net exports are expected to contribute little to growth, reflecting moderate foreign demand and ongoing competitiveness challenges, including the persistent strength of the Canadian dollar,” he said. Of note, the loonie spiked to a two-week high against the greenback earlier Tuesday.
Household debt still a problem
“Very favourable financing conditions are expected to buttress consumer spending and housing activity,” he said. “Household expenditures are expected to remain high relative to GDP and the ratio of household debt to income is projected to rise further.” The Bank of Canada has been harping on this for a while, but the conditions created by the lengthy low interest rate environment have led Canadians to borrow and spend. Debt-to-income ratios have hit repeated record highs in the past few years, and the trend is expected to continue.
If not hawkish, at least less dovish
The outlook for inflation remains stable for now, with dynamics similar to those in October, but Mr. Carney characterized the inflation profile as “marginally firmer.” Inflation is expected to slow in 2012, before rising again to 2% in the third quarter of 2013 as excess supply is absorbed, wages grow modestly and expectations remain anchored. “Several significant upside and downside risks are present in the inflation outlook for Canada. Overall, the bank judges that these risks are roughly balanced over the projection horizon,” he said.
Europe: Still a big mess
“The sovereign debt crisis in Europe has intensified, conditions in international financial markets have tightened and risk aversion has risen,” Mr. Carney said. “The bank continues to assume that European authorities will implement sufficient measures to contain the crisis, although this assumption is clearly subject to downside risks.” Children, of course, already know the schoolyard rhyme about what happens to “U and Me” when you assume anything.
The rest of the world: Not much better
“The outlook for the global economy has deteriorated and uncertainty has increased,” the bank said. In the United States, while the GDP rebound in the second half of the year was a welcome surprise, the bank remains bearish on the pace of growth in 2012 due to household deleveraging, fiscal consolidation and spillover from Europe. Chinese growth is also slowing as expected, to a more sustainable pace. Commodity prices, except oil, are expected to be below levels forecasted last October at least through to 2013.
Financial Post
Do your homework first… read the fine print – Rate of 2.99 to good to be true?
Although you will never hear any bank say that publicly, this is what is going on. Recently there has been some industry chatter about a few banks offering a sub 3% 5 year fixed product. One particular institution is bragging about their 6 billion dollar portfolio under administration, this product, and how great it is. At first glance you might think ” WOW, that’s awesome!” However as with all mortgages, you have to dig a bit deeper to find out the real nuts and bolts of this sub 3% offer. It’s a great offer alright for the bank, not for you; the consumer.
Based on an average mortgage size of $250,000, that’s 24,000 Canadians that negotiated directly with the bank who will feel ripped off once they find out about their terms and conditions. I am very pro client / consumer, and my job is to look out for their best interests so I simply can’t endorse this product. Consumers though need to know why they shouldn’t either. This product is priced well below the market average for 5 year product, and does not come without it’s “catches”. It’s definitely buyer beware and the bank will not tell you this.
Some of the features (or non-features you might say) are:
Minimal or no pre-payment privileges
This product has extremely low pre-payment features. On a monthly increase basis this could mean nothing to less than half of what the industry norm is. Lump sum payments may also be nothing or less than half the industry norm and if allowed only once per year. Pre-payment features are extremely beneficial and allow for strategies to be put in place. Lack of strategy means lack of interest savings for clients and consumers.
Fully Closed
When I say fully closed, I mean just that. A borrower cannot get out of the mortgage, unless they sell their place if at all. Who wants to sell their place if they want to refinance? I don’t know too many people that would. If borrowers do sell their place, a substantial penalty such as a 6 month interest penalty typically applies. Borrowers may be offered a reduced penalty (3 month) if they choose to refinance with that same bank however this still does not offer a borrower access to the entire mortgage market. It also confines them to more inferior product. If a borrower is going to pay a penalty, they rightfully should have the opportunity to entertain superior product. The average mortgage is in place roughly 3 years before being paid out or refinanced. Life just happens. More than likely a borrower will need to do something with their mortgage during their current mortgage term. To be locked down by these terms and clauses makes absolutely no sense.
No guarantee of best rates upon renewal or refinance
Banks know that consumers may not know the mortgage market at any particular point in time. What’s happening in the mortgage world is usually not on the forefront of people’s minds. When it comes time to renew or refinance borrowers can be offered a rate as high as 1% above the market norm and not realize it. When a borrower asks the bank to do better, they may be offered a discount further however that .5% “special” discount doesn’t look so good when the rest of the market is priced much lower. This amounts to more interest the borrower has to pay over the course of their mortgage. This is more money for the bank that should be staying with you.
Your mortgage will also be registered as a collateral charge.
Beware of this one as it is a very sly practice among banks. What does a collateral charge mean to a borrower? The bank will instruct the lawyer to register the title as a running account. More than likely you running account will have a global limit of the property value itself. This doesn’t mean you are going to get this money, it just means that your property is fully tied up. If you choose another lender at renewal, legal fees apply. A second mortgage or Line of Credit can’t be put behind this product because the bank has tied up ALL of your equity. No matter which way you turn, the bank has shackled you to more costs and fees.
The lesson here is that rate is not everything. Product and Strategy is. Borrowers need flexible product to execute strategy.
Contact me for more information or apply online at www.mortgageplayground.com

